For the First Time in Four Decades, Panama’s Ocean Lifeline Has Collapsed

Science Pulse | Oct 16, 2025

For the first time in over 40 years, Panama’s vital ocean upwelling system—a natural process that drives marine productivity in the Eastern Tropical Pacific—has collapsed, sending shockwaves through the region’s ecosystem and economy.

This phenomenon, normally active during the dry season, pulls cold, nutrient-rich water from deep in the ocean to the surface, feeding massive blooms of phytoplankton that sustain the region’s entire marine food web.

However, in 2025, the upwelling started 42 days late, lasted just 12 days instead of the typical 66, and failed to cool surface waters below 23.3°C—far warmer than the normal 19°C threshold needed to trigger productive biological activity.

As a result, chlorophyll levels (a proxy for ocean life) dropped to historically low levels, and satellite images confirmed a near-total shutdown of marine productivity along Panama’s Pacific coast.

The collapse is primarily blamed on unusually weak trade winds, likely influenced by climate change and El Niño conditions, which failed to drive the normal oceanic currents.

This disruption jeopardizes Panama’s marine biodiversity and fisheries sector, which generates nearly $200 million annually, mostly from exports.

Experts at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) warn this could signal a new, unstable phase in regional ocean dynamics.

If the trend continues, it may lead to a long-term ecological shift, undermining both food security and economic stability in coastal communities that rely heavily on the sea.

This marks a significant warning about the fragility of ocean systems in the face of accelerating climate disruption.