Half of global croplands could see a drop in suitable crops at 2C of warming

More than half of global cropland areas could see a decline in the number of suitable crops under a warming scenario of 2C, new research finds.

Carbon Brief | March 4, 2025
By Yanine Quiroz

The study, published in Nature Food, projects how climate change will modify the areas suited for growing 30 major crops under four scenarios, ranging from 1.5 to 4C of global warming.

It finds that under just 1.5C of warming, more than half of the studied crops would suffer from an overall loss of potential suitable cropland, compared to the current climate.

While warming would decrease crop diversity in the tropics, it would increase in areas far from the equator, “offering opportunities for climate change adaptation”, the authors write.

One scientist, who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that expanding research beyond just staple crops is “essential to understand[ing] the full impact of climate change on agriculture”, adding that “it is exciting to see more work in this space”.

Pineapple harvester, Mali. Credit: Mike Goldwater / Alamy Stock Photo